Figures recently published by Highland Council indicate that demographic decline within this region is much more insidious than many had feared.
For using 2023/24 as the base year and the latest government population publications for guidance, the Council is now forecasting an overall 23% fall in pupil numbers across its 29 secondary schools in the 15 years to 2038/39.
A decline of ‘only’ 7% was being forecast a year ago, reflecting the change in methodology brought about by the use of the government population publications.
It must be stressed that this problem is not limited to the Highlands – there are Scotland-wide issues at play and other local authorities will be seeing similar patterns. However, the situation in the Highlands is dire.
The ‘best performing’ school, Culloden Academy, is forecast to see a 10% decline, and the only other school at less than 20% is Kinlochbervie at 15%, and its roll is forecast to fall to 23 pupils.
The five Inverness secondaries are forecast to lose 20% of their pupils, while the overall decline in the rest of the Highlands is forecast to be 25%.
Schools within or touching the Inverness & Cromarty Firth Green Freeport area (the arc from Nairn to Inverness, Dingwall and Tain) are looking at a 21% decline, while for the Northern Highlands as a whole it’s 24%, and for the West Highlands & Skye (Kinlochleven to Kinlochbervie), it’s a 27% decline.
The 2022 Scotland Census found that the Highland population had increased by 1.4% since 2011 and that 23.7% were aged 65 or over, as against 2.7% and 20.1% respectively for Scotland as a whole.
A Highland Council spokesman said,
“It should be remembered that these are simply forecasts based on current build programmes. They do not reflect the impacts of measures we are proposing to support major economic developments, for which housing and infrastructure are being proactively considered. The forecasts are reviewed annually, and they will respond to and plan for such measures.”
Commenting on the figures, Professor David Bell of the Stirling Management School at the University of Stirling and an expert on demographic decline and the Scottish economy, said,
“The forecast decline in pupil numbers is extremely worrying for the sustainability of the populations in the North and West Highlands. Without substantial in-migration of working age families, the process is cumulative, with each generation smaller than the last – leading to irrevocable social, economic and cultural decline.
“A return to the levels of working-age inmigration that the Highlands experienced in the early 2000s is unlikely in the present political climate: other solutions have to be found.
“Here the realisation that the Highlands is not alone in facing this challenge can aid policy development. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is collecting information on responses to rural depopulation, which is now affecting many countries. It set up the project “Shrinking Smartly and Sustainably” in February 2023 to look at how depopulation leads to a mismatch between infrastructure, service provision and the built environment. This project can provide valuable lessons for our policymakers.
“However, the scope for public sector solutions to population decline will be limited for the foreseeable future due to the Highland Council’s financial constraints. Increasing emphasis on community-based and private sector solutions, with Highland Council’s role limited mainly to that of a facilitator, is inevitable.”
The Federation of Small Businesses’ Highlands & Islands Development Manager, David Richardson, said,
“Forecasts are only forecasts, but these represent Highland Council’s best attempt, and we must take them seriously – while at the same time hoping that time proves them wrong. For Highland schools as a whole to lose around a quarter of their pupils in 15 years is very frightening indeed. Could sounds of babies crying and children playing in our rural villages eventually become a rarity, and what are the consequences if they do?
“The visitor economy dominates much of our region and it has experienced an ever-worsening staffing shortage for years, FSB surveys finding that while a third of all business on Skye were short-staffed in 2016, the situation had deteriorated to six in ten in the Highlands in 2022. The result? Many short-staffed businesses have been forced to cut opening hours, the range of services they offer, or both to survive, and this can inevitably impact on customers’ perceptions of value for money and of the Highlands as a place to visit and do business.
“We now have the advent of the Green Freeport, a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the Highlands, one predicted to create employment for 10,000 plus people in the next 10 to 15 years.
“The question is, with school rolls forecast to decline so starkly and new jobs being created, where will the workers come from to fill the many new posts, let-alone old? Will existing workers be lured into working for Freeport businesses instead, and what will the knock-on impact on existing businesses be? Will more home-grown young people be persuaded to stay on to take advantage of the opportunities? Will workers from outwith the Highlands, especially those with young families, be attracted to move here to live?
“Lots of questions, but at the end of the day the Highlands needs more people of working age to fill the vacancies and create the economically and socially vibrant and sustainable communities that we need. And the more economically and socially vibrant and sustainable our communities, the more people of working age we will attract and retain. For this to happen we must provide appropriate and affordable accommodation, decent medical and educational services, decent retail, hospitality and recreational facilities, decent transport and digital connectivity, and last but not least, decent career prospects.
Clearly, this all costs eye-wateringly large amounts of money, not least affordable house building. But if we don’t invest, are we prepared to sit back and watch many of our rural villages continue what is currently the slow transition to becoming glorified retirement communities? Surely this is worth fighting for?”
Giving an employer’s perspective, leading Highland businessman and chair of Highland Coast Hotels, David Whiteford, said,
“With hotels in Inverness, Dornoch, Brora, Tongue, Kylesku and Plockton, Highland Coast Hotels experiences the staffing recruitment problem first hand in a wide variety of settings. As with Highland businesses in general, we seek to give our target markets the best possible quality, service and value-for-money, and attempting to do so when understaffed presents massive challenges.
“There’s no easy answer when investment in infrastructure like affordable accommodation is desperately needed but money is tight, which is why it’s so important that politicians, public, private and third sectors bodies and our many communities share a common vision and work together, using all resources available, to make the Highlands the best possible place for young families and people of working age to live, work and enjoy the amazing leisure and recreational opportunities the Highlands has to offer.”
While speaking on behalf of communities, Genevieve Duhigg, chair of the North Highland Initiative, said.
“Our communities have already proved their resilience and innovation in the last few years. They deserve to be listened to closely as they know what’s needed most to build their futures. We all need to build a shared and integrated Highland-wide plan for housing, transport, skills and childcare.”
ENDS
For further information contact:
David Richardson – [email protected] – 07917 628983
- These are the Scotland-wide population figures for 11 – 16 year olds in the latest ONS publication, “2020-based interim national population projections: year ending June 2022 estimated international migration variant”
|
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
2030 |
2031 |
2032 |
2033 |
2034 |
2035 |
2036 |
2037 |
2038 |
|
367583 |
369362 |
367523 |
365049 |
363408 |
356625 |
350248 |
343565 |
335756 |
325987 |
315896 |
307651 |
300928 |
295842 |
292705 |
291446 |
|
0% |
0% |
-1% |
-1% |
-3% |
-5% |
-7% |
-9% |
-11% |
-14% |
-16% |
-18% |
-20% |
-20% |
-21% |
NRS Births Scotland – there was a large year group around 2008 that is now leaving High School, hence the expected decline in High School rolls as they experience similar drops to Primary Schools
This is the link to the ONS population figures previously mentioned, see Scotland XML open data edition :
- The North Highland Initiative NHI has partnered with Scottish Community Tourism [SCOTO] to explore a fundamental new approach to tourism in the North Highlands, one that looks at new ways of building community-led tourism. Three pilots have been selected in Brora, Thurso and Lochcarron to identify what each community wants and needs to build long term services that balance the needs of visitors and residents alike. You can read more about this here.
- The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) is a non-profit, non-party-political organisation that offers its members a wide range of vital business services, including advice, financial expertise, support and a powerful voice heard in governments. Founded in 1974, FSB celebrates its 50th anniversary in 2024. More information is available at www.fsb.org.uk.
- Micro and small businesses comprise almost all enterprises in Scotland (98%), employ 900,000 people and turn over £82bn.